把握变革主线,制胜未来五年:谁将成为市场的长期赢家?

把握变革主线,制胜未来五年:谁将成为市场的长期赢家?

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世界经济正面临多重挑战与变革:全球化进程放缓、世界人口老龄化加剧等因素将制约未来五年生产率的显著提高。虽然人工智能的持续应用一定程度上可推动生产力,但我们认为过去几年全球GDP增长的下行趋势在未来将延续。在此背景下,预计到2029年,全球经济实际增长率将保持在温和水平,仅为2.6%。通胀问题可能将持续存在。尽管通胀率有望逐步回落至各国央行的目标区间,但由于净零转型和劳动力短缺可能在中期内推高能源和大宗商品价格,通胀波动性将会加剧。

近期,瑞士百达资产管理发布了第12版《长期展望》,对未来五年的市场趋势及各类资产回报进行了预测。以下我们浓缩了报告中的关键要点,帮助您洞悉全球转型浪潮之下的投资格局,发掘属于您的投资良机。

未来五年,三大市场趋势

股票、债券和外汇市场的态势将发生变化,这三大趋势的交织意味着投资者在未来五年需要调整投资策略,以适应新的市场环境。

1. 股票相对于公司债券的超额回报将显著下降

预计未来五年,股票相对于公司债券的年化超额回报率将降至约1%,远低于过去五年约10%的平均水平,但风险却是公司债券的两倍。

未来五年,债务超级周期将持续。我们认为,这将令金融市场的回报率处于较低但仍属于合理的水平。
— 瑞士百达资产管理首席策略师卢伯乐(Luca Paolini)

2. 各地区和国家股市之间的回报差异将缩小

未来五年几乎所有发达国家的股市年化回报率都将在7%左右波动。这表明过去几年表现优异的美股可能会失去其领先地位。股票投资者会发现,按行业或主题方向进行投资,或将资金分散投资于私募资产中,或能获得更为丰厚的回报。

3. 美元将呈现稳步贬值趋势

外汇市场将出现重大变化,预计美元到2029年将每年贬值约2%。而当美元走弱时,新兴市场和大宗商品市场可能表现良好。

未来五年,三大行业前景

尽管全球经济受制于低生产率,科技、工业和医疗保健这三个行业仍显示出强劲的潜力,或将成为长期赢家。未来五年,这些行业的股票表现可能累计超过MSCI世界股票指数20%。这些行业不仅在创新方面表现突出,还受益于强劲的长期趋势。它们在应对气候变化、地缘政治紧张和劳动力短缺等重大社会挑战中发挥关键作用。在不确定性增加的时期,投资于能解决重大社会问题的行业或为明智之选。

1. 科技:数智创新引领未来

  • 科技行业在全球企业收入中的占比将继续上升;
  • 半导体日益成为整个经济的创新引擎,推动生产率增长;
  • 人工智能的发展将加速资本支出周期;
  • 涨势将扩大到其他直接推动人工智能技术的企业,如其他半导体制造商、云基础设施提供商、服务器和网络提供商、安全软件制造商等。

2. 医疗保健:人口变迁及科技融合推动增长

  • 过去二十年中,医疗保健设备和服务一直是全球收入增长最强劲的行业,年增长率超过9%;
  • 两大结构性趋势将推动行业发展:人口结构变化和技术创新,尤其是研究重点向生物制剂和人工智能领域转移。

3. 工业:自动化浪潮势不可挡

  • 人口结构变化导致的技术工人短缺加剧,对自动化和机器人的需求将增加;
  • 脱碳、人工智能、地缘政治、大规模政府投资计划等多个大趋势推动行业发展;
  • 机器人及机器人系统、采矿设备、资本货物的制造商以及助力电网基础设施的企业有望成为赢家。

未来五年,三大资产类别观点

美股优势将减弱,公共和私募信贷市场机会显现。各类资产的前景如何?

1. 股票市场:预计未来五年MSCI世界指数以本地货币计算的年回报率约为7%

  • 未来五年,全球股市估值仍将高于平均水平,企业利润也将保持稳健;
  • 相比其他发达市场股市,美股上涨空间有限,美股在全球股票市场的领先地位将开始减弱;
  • 投资者应考虑基于行业的资产配置方法,例如重点布局科技、医疗保健和工业等领域。

2. 固定收益:债券市场是一个更具吸引力的长期投资标的

  • 债券将是未来五年的首选资产,可能提供比股票更有利的风险调整后回报;
  • 信用利差已收窄至本轮货币周期以来的最低水平,且不太可能进一步扩大,为进入信贷市场创造了非常有利的时机;
  • 随着主要经济体利率见顶,借款人的市场准入应继续改善,为提前再融资创造机会;
  • 高收益债券价格可能上涨至面值,特别是在短期市场中。

3. 另类投资:提高其在投资组合中的配置比例,有助于获取公共市场难以提供的分散化收益

  • 从诸多方面来看,私募信贷都是一种颇具吸引力的投资。私募债务基金所提供的浮动利率有助于提高收益并缩短投资组合的久期。鉴于短期政策利率高企,且利差相较公共信贷更为宽泛,当下私募信贷所提供的收益率与历史平均股票回报率不相上下。我们看好私募信贷市场前景,由于其受益于不断增长的私募资本生态系统;此外,私募股权支持可降低私募信贷借款人的违约风险;
  • 工业金属,尤其是向净零转型所需的金属,预计具有最大的上涨潜力;
  • 绿色转型进程刚起步,地缘政治因素正推动大宗商品密集型供应链的异地复制,同时供应受限,可能带来投资机会。

 

*Simulated data and projected forecast figures presented in in the Appendix are figures that are hypothetical, unaudited and prepared by Pictet Asset Management (Europe) SA. The results are intended for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results, which may vary. Projected future performance is not indi­cative of actual returns and there is a risk of substantial loss. Hypo­thetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which, but not all, are described herein. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown herein. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. The hypothetical performance results contained herein represent the application of the quantitative models as currently in effect on the date first written above, and there can be no assurance that the models will remain the same in the future or that an application of the current models in the future will produce similar results because the relevant market and economic conditions that prevailed during the hypothetical performance period will not necessarily recur. There are numerous other factors related to the markets which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results, all of which can adversely affect actual performance results. Hypothetical performance results are presented for illustrative purposes only. Indexes are unmanaged, do not reflect management or trading fees, and it is not possible to invest directly in an index. There is no guarantee, express or implied, that long-term return and/or volatility targets will be achieved. Realised returns and/or volatility may come in higher or lower than expected. A full list of the assumptions made can be provided on request.
**Based on volatility matching portfolio, with global high yield added to risk allocation and with global investment grade added to risk-free allocation, while keeping notional risk allocation the same. For optimised portfolio, allocations are as follows: for 60/40, 47.2% equities, 12.8% HY, 40% IG; for 50/50, 34.3% equities, 15.7% IG, 50% HY; for 40/60, 21.4% equities, 18.6% HY, 60% IG; for 30/70, 8.5% equities, 21.5% HY, 70% IG. Benchmarks are MSCI ACWI, FTSE WDBI, ICE BofA Global HY, ICE BofA Global IG. Data covering period 01.05.2004-30.04.2024AboutPictet Asset Management's Strategy Unit (PSU)The PSU is composed of 23 of Pictet Asset Management’s most experienced multi asset and fixed income portfolio managers, economists, strategists and research analysts. The group is based across six locations globally. They are responsible for providing asset allocation guidance over short-term and long-term horizons across stocks, bonds, commodities and alternatives.
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