瑞士百达集团
全球格局转变,投资者应如何配置资产?
不到三年时间里,我们经历了一系列前所未有的变化,这将在未来很长一段时间内影响经济和金融市场。2020年初,全球各大经济体当局推出大规模的财政和货币支持措施,以应对新冠疫情爆发带来的巨大冲击。后疫情时代经济重启导致需求大幅飙升(得益于同样的大规模支持方案)之后,央行官员们才后知后觉地发现,疫情爆发前盛行的经济环境已不复存在,通胀再次成为一个主要问题。由于欧美央行起步较晚,自去年以来,我们见证了历史上幅度最大、速度最快的利率收紧。
全球政治方面,俄乌冲突打破了地缘政治平衡,促使各国围绕不同的世界愿景进行重新结盟。我们以往认为理所当然的大宗商品和产品供应,都因疫情和俄乌冲突而面临不确定性。简而言之,过去10年的经济和政治框架已消失。展望未来,这意味着任何基于这一框架的资产配置都注定表现不佳。由于我们预计无法恢复至2020年之前的状况,投资者将不得不适应并重新定义他们的配置。
我们认为四个主要经济因素决定了未来的发展方向: 家庭的过度储蓄; 政府的巨额财政赤字; 大型央行的资产负债表规模; 以及地缘政治紧张局势。
我们预期,家庭储蓄上涨与工资的强劲增长(源于劳动力短缺)将会维持家庭支出,从而使通胀难以回落到以前的水平。与此同时,我们预计,公共财政的困境将促使各国政府寻求新的收入来源,尤其是在各国央行采取行动,通过出售所持政府债券或让其到期而不进行再投资来缩减资产负债表的情况下。
最后,地缘政治紧张局势正在塑造一个一体化程度较低的世界,迫使企业重新思考并重塑错综复杂的供应和生产网络。
随着国际关系日益令人担忧,对生产资料的控制和供应安全已成为企业高管以及无法再依赖昔日盟友的政府亟待履行的首要任务。对许多人来说,最近的事态发展看起来像是“冷战”思维的回归。但尽管冷战涉及以美苏两个全球大国为中心的阵营之间的紧张关系,如今的情况则更为复杂,在一个更加多极化的世界,各种经济和政治阵营之间都存在不可避免的竞争。
如今,各国政府的首要任务是提高工业韧性和促进能源独立,以及建设国防能力和关键的新基建。目前在这些领域乏善可陈的国家将需要迅速适应和自我调整,因此需要持续多年的强大公共投资。
在这种背景下,财政刺激措施正越来越多地被用作战略目标的一部分,目的是让核心领域的企业和行业离本土更近。未来几年,各国之间为确保和控制获得尖端技术而展开的竞争可能只会愈演愈烈。从投资的角度来看,试图在劳动力市场已经紧张的国家恢复工业实力,可能会增加通胀压力,除非技术(包括人工智能)能大幅提高生产率。对企业而言,重塑供应和生产网络的相关成本增加导致盈利能力下降,以及现金流转向新的资本支出——这可能会损害过去几年通过公司股票回购和股息分红而大为受益的股权持有人的利益。除了资本支出,如何吸引规模日益缩减的员工队伍,可能比回报股东更重要。
2022年以来利率的快速上升也将影响股票投资。这是因为贴现率——央行向商业银行收取的短期贷款利率,会影响任何未来现金流的现值。
因此,贴现率的上升意味着未来股票估值的结构性下降。在一些国家,随着短期利率自2022年以来上升,现金工具看来再次成为可信的投资。
与此同时,随着美元的霸主地位日益受到挑战,更加分化的地缘政治格局可能会导致货币秩序的重塑。随着各国质疑美元在贸易和外汇储备中的首要地位,投资者可能会在未来10年看到这方面的进一步变化。
虽然股票投资将受到这种新环境的挑战,但固定收益投资的情况也在随之而变。面对越来越低的名义收益率,投资者近年来日益涌入风险更高的固定收益资产,以寻找更有吸引力的收益率。
但目前,通胀上升和随之而来的加息使优质的固定收益再次获得投资者关注(见图表)。由于通胀和利率将保持在比过去更高的水平,在不增加投资组合风险参数的情况下,优质投资级别公司债券和政府债券在资产配置和回报中应占更大的比重。对于典型的60/40配置而言,由于能带来可观的回报和具有投资组合保护作用,市场回归固定收益投资应该是个好消息。
概括而言,去年出版的《前瞻·十年》所指出的趋势(“大政府回归”)进一步加速,促成了一种截然不同的投资格局,需要投资者改变资产配置方式。只有通过观察我们概述的长期变化并理解其潜在的影响,投资者才能充分把握我们对未来10年资产类别回报的预测。
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