In conversation with Carmen Reinhart

Historically, the negative real interest rates seen in the US, Europe and Japan after the global financial crisis are the exception, not the rule. In a system in which there is a lot of uncertainty, a lot of debt, a lot of geopolitical risk, interest rates are going back towards the historic norm, which involved positive real interest rates.

The prospect of the incoming US administration levying trade tariffs has enormous implications for global trade, and implications for global growth. Within the US, it will have implications for inflation. It represents a big shock to the global system that we had not seen the likes of in many a decade.

Will the dollar continue to be king in the global economy? At the moment, we do not have an alternative, so the dollar will be the dominant currency for some time.