UK elections

The Labour Party is expected to win the upcoming UK general elections on 4 July, securing a victory for the first time since 2005. This anticipated victory is driven by voters’ dissatisfaction with the Conservative Party's handling of rising living costs and declining productivity over recent years.

Both Labour and the Conservatives face constraints due to a rising tax burden and limited fiscal headroom, preventing them from proposing radical changes. While both parties share a consensus on maintaining the main tax rates unchanged, their approaches to economic stimulus and fiscal responsibility diverge.

Expected to secure a large majority, the Labour Party is likely to face minimal opposition in parliament, and it remains unclear who will emerge as the effective main opposition. However, we do not expect the party to make any radical changes if elected, as they will focus on building trust with their newly gained electoral base.